Sunday, March 15, 2009

Weekly Update

Well Sir, we had a nice rally this past week that has my little ETF basket firmly in overbought territory. Per the LR30 channel, XLF is leading the pack as daily volume peaked on Wednesday and faded down into Friday. XLE and IWM are now at the LR30 channel mean, while the Qs have actually only risen to the lower channel band. So do we buy the Qs and sell the XLF at this point?
I've added back in the VIX overlay (red line on each chart to show the impending price/VIX crosses (already a done deal on the Qs) and in the past this cross has been good for at least a couple days of momentum contra the VIX . . . meaning the rally still may have some legs as we go into uber-overbought territory.
Below are the same charts with weekly bars. . . reflecting a little different outlook with the Qs and XLE riding a downsloping LR30 top band and the IWM and XLF clinging to the mean. The MACD/MAX technicals are all neutral. Hey!. . . nobody ever said trading was easy.
My GE, MSFT and Qs longs from last weekend worked out well, although heavy selling pressure in MSFT persists so I've just switched over to fading the ATM calls at the downturn of each intraday rally bounce (so far, so good). Bottom line, I banked some bucks and am now covered going into this week's expiration.
By the end of the month I hope to complete the new blog format focused on the Qs (and perhaps IWM) Dirty Dozen performance matrix.
In addition, and more exciting (to me), I hope to launch a live trading/chat room in conjunction with another active day trader. To start out with, I would moderate the room one day a week and focus on daytrading the Qs with streaming live video of the trading screens I'm watching and the various signals and setups that I'm seeing develop. Depending on the level of interest, this format could be expanded to include other traders using focus different ETFs, technical indicators and trading setups. For now, just getting the technology together is the big push along with finding the free time to put it all together.

1 comment:

Cuccaa said...

COOOOOOOOOOOOOOL, get that room going, NOW!!!!!!! Hahahahahaha, why only one day a week??? I'll advertise it on my site, I know we can get Sysin in there, who knows, maybe Dave Johnson will show up. Cool idea.