Tuesday, July 21, 2009

VIX Pivot Bands

Here's a look at the VIX using the pivot bands. I've transposed the original Excel worksheet into TradeStation to allow a more robust display. For simplification purposes the lower plot reflects only 3 pivot values of the weekly bars: R4 (green), PP (yellow) and S4 (red).
The indicator lines on the chart itself are the LR7 (yellow) and LR14(white).
I show this simple chart because the VIX pivot bands are following a convergence pattern seldom seen in the past few years.
Late Nov 2006 to Feb 2007 displays the most similar pattern as it concludes a gradual 6 month slide in the VIX, although the scale of the price dynamics at the time was much less dramatic that current conditions if only because the previous VIX high in that case was at 20.
I post this only as a cautionary note to the many traders I have talked with lately who are short, or double short. . . a position I have considered myself.
You can see that the last instance of this pattern was resolved with a dramatic surge in the VIX, a moderate retracement and then a long term climb up the VIX ladder . . . so the logical argument would appear to wildly favor the shorts.
On the other hand, that pattern was resolved from a basically level VIX, while the current VIX is clearly downslope. The point to be made is that the VIX may see further erosion down to the 20 level before the reversal really takes hold.
Now this is just one admittedly limited technical perspective on what may be coming down the pipe, and I've noted ad nausea how difficult those predictions can be.
Nevertheless, while we may see some short term weakness in the markets, I remain hesitant to aggressively pursue the short side. . . preferring instead to wait and see how the the remainder of earnings week plays out.
While the Qs, SMH and many other ETF/indices have recently attained new yearly highs, it can also be argued that there's still at least a 10% upside potential before the next level of overhead resistance kicks in.
Just something else to think about. . .


vovor said...

Very interesting work here. Do you have statistics on such indicators? It makes me think about Volatility Squeeze defined by John Bollinger. One occured late June in the VIX.

bzbtrader said...

If you overlay the pivot bands study with the BBs, you'll see the difference. I've run a number of TS studies in the spirit of the Qs and IWM Dirty Dozen systems on these various VIX indicators. Unfortunately, those posts each consumed multiple hours to compose and post and my time is fairly limited these days. Eventually I'll download them over to Jeff and he can add to his REWIND matrix.
BTW, thanks for your Chat Room input. Your comments are thoughtful and appreciated.