Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Project Z Loves TLT

Above, weekly bars of the TLT showing the relative stability of 100 as overhead resistance. I say relative because there were a few months 08-09 when things got a bit hairy and TLT hit 123. Other than that little blip TLT been in a fairly tight trading range of 85-95 since inception in 02.
April and May have seen TLT hold a top ranking in our Rotator model more than 75% of the time, so I thought this might be a good time to check in with Project Z and see what the crystal ball was divining. Z fired off a Long exit 3 days ago based strictly on a fixed bar exit trigger, reinforcing the concept of a timing cycle.
These are the kind of performance metrics that keep me coming back to Project Z. Averaging almost 1 trade a month with a nice balance of longs and shorts the max consecutive losers is 0 to 1. Currently flat, TLT may be in a midst of a short term pullback, or something more substantial. . . only time will tell. Given the neutral to bearish mode of the majors as the market yo-yos, this is probably the safest course of action for the short term.

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