Thursday, June 24, 2010

Worse Than it Looks

I continue to concentrate on the currency ETFs (and NEM), especially FXE and TLT. The early action in FXE was characterized by another very bearish drop to 1 penny below S3 before it began its intraday run up. In a complete reversal of my previously stated tactic of being short FXE, the early drop allowed me no strategic entry and I therefore took the opposite side of the trade ...long at 121.85. This turned out to be pure dumb luck as the FXE slowly churned up to touch R2 before retreating. That's a huge intraday range for FXE and I was able to exit at 122.85 for a buck gain. Like I said . . dumb luck coupled with the artificial positive beta surge which typifies FOMC days.
Unfortunately, a quick look at the chart suggests that Wednesday's pop did nothing more than push the FXE further into overbought territory . . the technicals are distinctly bearish.
The other object of my attention is my once favorite FXC, which has broken down through the short term LR channel and looks headed for the 93.50 level.
Keep in mind these charts are formatted in 2 day bars. . the daily bar charts look even more bearish.
Both FXE and FXC are exhibiting increasing volume on the distribution side, while UUP volume has fallen off by almost 50%.
The yen continued its run but in the final analysis TLT has the best looking chart of the bunch.

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