Thursday, November 06, 2008

A Different View of the NYAD

Here's a look at the NYAD compared with the Qs for the last three months on daily bars.
First of all, I need to clarify that I wouldn't trade the Qs or anything else based on the NYAD daily chart, even if I was being prodded to do so with a red hot poker.
I've already expressed my daytrading bias and focus in many previous posts, and this same bias extends to the NYAD. The price scale skew that typifies the NYAD at the market open is a giant caution flag for any traders (like myself) trying to use the NYAD to guage momentum divergence . . . which is why I have suggested not implementing any NYAD based trades during the first 30 minutes, during which time NYAD volatility tends to subside to a more trackable range.
With that disclaimer, what I find interesting here is the way the daily NYAD has responded to the 3 LRs study, especially the LR30. Although the LR30 mean has been upslope since mid-September, the majority of daily bars have clearly been below the zero line. Although we can trace a distinctly upslope momentum in the NYAD in the week prior to the election, the last 2 days behavior has retraced the NYAD to a level currently below the lower channel leg.
This current daily NYAD position is accompanied by a number of technical indicators suggesting that a quick bounce off this otherwise oversold level is not likely to occur quickly. This short term bearish stance is also reflected in the Qs technicals, as the Qs have retreated once again to the upper LR30 channel.

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