Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Mid Week Update

I was really expecting a little pump today, but the technicals tell the tale. With today's slide the idea of kissing the channel goodbye with an upside bounce is pretty much out the window. Volume is increasing in conjunction with selling momentum.
All 4 of the ETF basket have kissed the LR11 good-bye to the downside.
Side note: GE down 8.5% today on volume equal to the Qs and XLF. OUCH!!!!
Not one of the mid-panel technicals is bullish, so what started out the week as a neutral forecast has now become resoundingly bearish and the trading range market that was expected has developed into a solid downtrend. For swing traders, the danger here is assessing the odds for a near term rally against further declines.
Perhaps surprisingly, in the face of the virulent selling today the VIX only jumped 8% to 66.46 with an intraday high of 67.19. I think we're going to see VIX 80 again before the bottom . . . the big question is when.
If we don't get any upside relief tomorrow, the odds of it happening on Friday or Monday are slim . . . recall my studies on selling Friday and Monday for a quantitative view.
Not a time to get frisky with your account.
Yes . . . there is some good news . . . guns sales are up . . . way up!
And . . . consigliere Paulson said late in the day that done of the bailout money would be used to buy bad mortgages. Wasn't that Bush's argument for the bailout in the first place? Hey, I'm old, I probably just misunderstood.

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