Saturday, November 08, 2008

Weekly Update

Another week and we are technically right back where we were 5 days ago . . . riding the upper LR 30 channel line. The difference, of course, is that all 4 ETFs made attempts to kiss the channel good-bye . . . and failed. While there are instances where a return to the upper channel line has served as a springboard to new highs, the current underlying technicals are neutral to bearish, with the exception of the RSI2, which is fast approaching oversold levels in all 4 ETFs.
Volume in all 4 was below both the 10 and 20 DSMAs all week, which suggests that the big money remains on the sidelines despite the election.
As suggested last week, the MA50 served as overhead resistance for the A50's rise and Friday's surge has provided a little pause as the A50 looks poised to retreat back to the 20DMSA. I've added the AROON indicator to the chart for more guidance, which in this case is in a SELL mode.
The A200 looks very similar to the A50, the difference being that price has already retraced to the 20DSMA. The A200 AROON is also on a SELL.
MACD on both the A50 and A200 are dead on the zero line and trending down short term.
Not a lot to go on for next week which, given the current technicals, is more likely to be a trading range market than a trending one.

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