Weekly ETF Pivots Update

All 4 of the ETF basket reached the upper LR30 daily channel this week and all 4 closed the week with the technicals in a bullish mode. We are now at a challenging point: will the market exhibit some of that (truly) irrational exuberance and kiss the channel good-bye to the upside . . or will the LR30 continue to hold as upper resistance and usher in the next cycle down to the lower LR30 channel? That, of course, is the 64 dollar question and whether the election results catalyze a market explosion or an implosion remains to be seen.
One scenario that has been posted widely foresees a surge into election eve and perhaps for a day or 2 thereafter, followed by a virulent decline to previous or lower lows. Given the position of the current technicals, this is a distinct possibility, so extreme caution is advised for those favoring swing positions.

For the week all 4 of the ETF basket closed at the R1 level, reflecting the lockstep bullish behavior of the markets. This should also be an indication to you that these ETFs do indeed move in somewhat predictable ways.

The pivot ranges for the coming week are almost mirror images of last week, so what's interesting here is that the % delta of the ranges has almost reached 100, indicating a leveling off of volatility. Unfortunately, this is happening when the asset value of these ETFs is down about 40% from this time last year. What this suggests, of course, is an impending range expansion . . but as with the LR30s study in the top charts, the question is whether the break will be to the upside or downside.Finally, a quick look at the NDX (Qs) stocks above the 50 day MA. Coming off a zero reading for most of October, this certainty looks encouraging, and based on past behavior of this indicator, we should at least expect a cross of the MA50 line before a retracement. We'll check back next week to see how the A50 played out.