Thursday, June 26, 2008

60 minute man

I noticed this situation at closing today on the 60 minute bars and I thought it worth mentioning.
This is one of the trading chart setups that I use with the RSI2, Stochastics 10,3,3 and StochRSI 12,2,3 (a blend of the RSI and STO) which Schwab offers although most platforms do not.
Now the interesting thing to me at the close was the obvious extreme oversold sync of the the 3 oscillators. I suspect that for many traders this is a signal of an impending reversal and a high probability bottom fishing opportunity. But I'm not so sure that a bullish stance is the right one at this particular juncture.
Look at the price action 4 days ago, when the all day slide culminated in the most recent oversold technical signal. Was that a great time to buy?
What we got was a little bull stair for 3 hours and then a significantly lower closing low.
Today's volume was 189M; 4 days ago 197M.
This was followed by a bull stair for 2 days producing a 2% gain. . .which was completely wiped out by today's 4% loss.
If you look at the bottoming pattern of the indicators 4 days ago, you notice that the RSI displayed a little bull hiccup midday, but then continued to descend to a new lower low the next day. That's what I suspect lies in store for the Qs tomorrow.
In addition, there was no ambivalence about the close today. . .it was at the low of the day, with the NYAD at an absolutely pathetic .17 after being on a death watch all day long. The 10 & 20 MAs are wide apart (bearish) on the 2, 10 and 60 minute charts supporting the fractal argument for continued weakness.
I would be EXTREMELY hesitant to get long at this point as momentum appears heavily stacked to the downside. On the other hand, very tight stops are advised at these levels as any short covering rally could move the markets dramatically (per Bespoke's Monday link).
I'm still anticipating my Qs weekly update scenario to play out and am 100% in cash at the end of each day.

No comments: