The good, the bad and the ugly

Stepping back to look at monthly bars of the 3LRs study provides a little clearer picture of what's been happening and what's possible in the near term.

In #1 position, my little friend the Qs. If they break through that lower LR30 channel, a kiss the channel goodbye pattern is the most probable outcome (see Friday's Update post for likely targets).

The DIA has already kissed the lower LR30 channel goodbye. . .a level which has provided overhead resistance for the DIA for the first 6 months of 2008.

The DIA technicals are uniformly negative, suggesting more ugly decline to come.

Bottom 2 charts are the XLE and XLF, the good and the bad. Neither appears ready to change trend.

Here are some more popular technical indicators on the 3 LRs study of monthly bars.

T2107 is % stocks above 200 day MA.

T2100 is the advance/decline line.

T2108 is % stocks above the 40 day MA.

The VIX, well, the VIX is the VIX. Run a "VIX" blog search to find my spin on this enigmatic indicator.

While several well respected technical bloggers have used the Telechart T indicators to develop oversold reversal models, I remain skeptical of a near term bottom until the VIX spikes back to overbought levels. In addition, the T2100 and T2107 look particularly bearish and the last time the T2108 looked like this was 2005, just prior to a major reversal pattern. Current T2108 technicals are negative, supporting my patience for a washout.