Friday, June 20, 2008

Qs Weekly Update

Qs weekly update of the 3 linear regression study (30,11,3) of daily and weekly bars.
For the week, Qs down .95 or 2%. DIA down 4%, IWM down 1% and SPY down 3.4%.
My contention last week that the IWM was showing short term strength relative to the Qs played out this week, although not quite as expected (it was less weak).
As my ole buddy Bob Dylan used to say, "You don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows", or was that "the answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind"? More likely, current chart patterns suggest "a hard rain's a gonna fall".
Don Worden of Telechart, whom I have mentioned from time to time, sees a potential bottom in the DIA developing as a triple bottom pattern forms on the the weekly bars. SPY is showing a similar propensity, although the Qs and IWM are looking just plain bearish. Now, I like Don a lot, and highly respect his chart interpretations, but at this point in time, I'd have to favor odds for a continued slide (just my opinion)(and my money).
First downside stop on the Qs weekly chart is the upper LR30 channel at 44.18, while a mean reversion (which is possible if things get moving) would drop the Qs back to 40.
Increasing volume on the daily and weekly bars, but not at peak levels as seen during previous pivot low conditions. I see little evidence of selling capitulation yet and there's still considerable downside potential to retrace the March lows.
I'm currently in cash and will continue to focus on pivot point driven day trades with one eye on the exits at all time.
The A5o and A200 continued their rollover patterns which emerged last week, and both look poised to kiss the 200DSMA goodbye. We may get a rally next week as the real sellers try to shore up support before things get nasty. This may turn out to be one memorable summer, and not in a pleasant way if any of Thursday's RBS post plays out.

1 comment:

Marc said...

I think you hit it on the head. There's no real sign of capitulation yet. Until this happens, especially with the horrid news of late, I'll be short or on the sidelines.