Monday, June 23, 2008

VIX update and short interest

Above is a snipit from a recent Bespoke post. Not exactly cheery and indicative of a growing mood and tactical approach to the markets. Check out the full article for implications of a potential short covering rally.

And then there's this.
I know I said I'd never post on the VIX again, but being old and of unsound mind let's me forget I ever said that without much penalty.
So here's the 3 linear regression study (30,11,3) (daily and weekly bars) of my little friend the VIX, and although we could try and disect these charts ad nauseum, the most glaring observation is that the VIX has a (considerable) ways to go to mimic previous market swoons.
Any idea that the market is at a near term bottom seems improbable until the VIX action picks up. Although the summer months often display confounding technical patterns, I believe it's a stretch to think that the worse is over.
Overbought on the daily and oversold on the weekly, the longer term VIX forecast is bullish (for the VIX, not the markets). The current earnings season is a likely catalyst to get things moving.
Also see Rob Hanna's recent study reflective of VIX complacency and market performance.

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