Qs weekly update of 3 linear regression (30,11,3) study of daily and weekly bars.
For the week, Qs down 1.77 0r 3.74%. DIA down 3.91%, IWM down 3.95%, SPY down 3%.
We got the market rollover suggested by last week's technical review and, unfortunately, the technical big picture suggests the same downside support levels are vulnerable.
Although the daily chart is showing signs of being oversold, today's doji like pattern may only be a temporary reprieve before further declines set in.
The weekly chart has still not retraced to the upper LR30 channel at 43.25 and the lower technicals offer only modest encouragement for a rally at these levels.
Both daily and weekly volume are increasing, but not accelerating.
I still believe some sort of a high volume wash out will be necessary prior to any real presumptive "value" buying.
The A50 is the most dramatic of our 2 NDX moving average charts, with this week's displaying the type of capitulation characteristic of impending market turns. With the A50 at 14.5, the Qs (NDX) have now pushed through the March lows and are quickly approaching the Jan lows, though not under extreme oversold conditions.
A likely scenario at this point is a consolidation pattern such as that in early Jan, followed by a plunge to the depths. While an abrupt reversal such as seen in August is a possibility, I think the overall market weakness, flood of bad news and downgrades, coupled with a lack of positive fundamental economic indicators increases the probability of the former scenario.
Having broken through the 50DSMA with gusto, the A200 mirrored weakness in the A50 this week, although not to such an extreme. With its current barely oversold technical levels, the A200 is an indicator to watch.