Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Scratching the Hairy Bottom

Sorry, but I couldn't resist today's little hairy bottom vignette.
I'm showing 2 minute bars, although the hairy botom pattern is clearly evident in the 5 minutes also. I've also added the S3 pivot at 47.90 just to display the reversal pattern precisely at that level. . .because you know I LOVE the pivots.
OK, so the interesting stuff starts at 10:34 when that bullish reversal candle drops below S3 to 47.83 before takeoff.
This bar is followed by a 6 minute squat bar formation, at which point the 10&20 MAs have a negative divergence and the engulfing bearish bar at 10:42 blows clean through S2.
At this point the odds favor the downside, but I'm flat.
For the next 5 bars the Qs ratchet down quickly to S3 and then form a clean hairy bottom (slightly ascending. . .bullish bias), with a little doji at 11:02, followed by a bullish reversal bar at 11:04.
At this point the bias is distinctly bullish as the technicals come off oversold levels and S2 becomes our first up side target.
After slamming against S2 resistance for 10 minutes, the Qs break through S2 at 11:34 with the 10&20 MAs still parallel, so S1 becomes our next upside target.
This S1 target is realized very quickly at 11:50 on a 3 bar volume surge that blows through S1 resistance.
Unfortunately, the NYAD at this point is only .44 (not shown) so odds for a real rally are pretty thin.
Sure enough, at 11:56 the technical panel turns negative, and although the 10&20 MAs still look positive, the parabolics fire a SELL at 12:02 as price retraces to S1 and we close the trade.
Time in trade: 11:04 - 12:02 = 58 minutes
Trade gain: 47.94 - 48.35 = .41
This was a quick trade and contrary to my current bias to the short side, the odds favored a bullish reversal. Glad to be out of that trade as I was nervous about it.
I'm done for the day.

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